Macro

When Inflation Is Normal, People Save and Price in Dollars

Persistent high inflation drives people to price in a foreign currency, save in it, and eventually transact in it. Reversing that requires credibility the government spent years destroying.

↩ Looking BackPart of the 2020 to 2026 retrospective, written in July 2026. The date below marks the 2025 events this piece revisits, not when it was published, so it draws on everything known through mid 2026.
Nathan Xiang·October 1, 2025

The Three Functions

Money does three things: it stores value, it provides a unit for quoting prices, and it serves as a medium of exchange. Under persistent inflation these separate, and they fail in a predictable order.

Store of value fails first. Nobody saves in a currency losing substantial purchasing power annually, so savings move into foreign currency or physical assets.

Unit of account fails next. Property, cars, and long term contracts get quoted in a stable foreign currency even when payment occurs in local currency at the day rate.

Medium of exchange survives longest, because daily transactions are small and the currency is legal tender.

You can identify how bad inflation is by watching which function has been abandoned. When houses are priced in dollars, the currency has already lost two of its three jobs.

Why It Is Self Reinforcing

Each step makes the next more likely. As people shift savings into foreign currency, demand for the local currency falls, which weakens it further and raises inflation.

Widespread foreign currency pricing means exchange rate movements pass into domestic prices almost immediately, which shortens the lag between depreciation and inflation and makes the spiral tighter.

StageWhat is dollarisedReversibility
EarlySavingsRelatively easy
MiddlePrices of durable goodsHarder
AdvancedEveryday transactionsVery difficult

The Indexation Trap

Economies with long inflation experience develop automatic indexation: wages, rents, and contracts adjust to past inflation by formula.

This protects people from erosion and it also embeds inflation into the system. Past inflation mechanically produces future inflation regardless of current monetary conditions, which means stabilisation requires breaking contracts people reasonably relied on.

Why Stabilisation Is So Hard

Ending high inflation requires credibly committing to not doing it again, and credibility is precisely what has been spent.

Programmes that fail typically address the symptom, fixing the exchange rate or freezing prices, without resolving the fiscal deficit that forced money creation in the first place. The measures work briefly, imbalances accumulate, and the collapse is worse than the starting point.

Programmes that succeed generally combine fiscal correction, so the government no longer needs money creation, with an institutional change that makes reversal difficult, and they accept a recession as part of the cost.

The Full Dollarisation Option

Some countries have abandoned the local currency entirely and adopted a foreign one. This eliminates inflation and exchange rate risk immediately, which is a genuine benefit for an economy that has failed repeatedly to stabilise.

The cost is the loss of monetary policy and of the lender of last resort function. The country imports the monetary stance of another economy, which may be wrong for its conditions, and it cannot devalue to adjust after a shock. Adjustment then falls on wages and employment, which is slower and more painful.

That is a coherent trade for a country whose monetary institutions have failed and a poor one for a country whose have not.

What It Costs to Live With

Persistent inflation imposes costs beyond the price level. Long term lending in local currency disappears, so mortgages and business investment loans become scarce or unavailable. Planning horizons shorten. Resources go into managing currency exposure rather than into producing anything.

The distributional effect is regressive, since wealthier households can hold foreign assets and poorer ones hold cash and receive wages that adjust with a lag.

The Bottom Line

High inflation drives currency substitution in a predictable order, starting with savings and ending with everyday transactions, and each stage makes the next harder to reverse. Stabilisation requires fixing the fiscal source and rebuilding credibility, and the deeper the substitution has gone, the more it costs to undo.

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