Macro

The Fed Went to Zero on a Sunday Night

Rather than wait for its scheduled meeting, the Federal Reserve cut rates to near zero and restarted large scale asset purchases on a Sunday evening. The timing was the message.

↩ Looking BackPart of the 2020 to 2026 retrospective, written in July 2026. The date below marks the 2020 events this piece revisits, not when it was published, so it draws on everything known through mid 2026.
Nathan Xiang·March 18, 2020

Two Cuts in Thirteen Days

The Federal Reserve normally moves at eight scheduled meetings a year, and it telegraphs those moves for weeks so markets are not surprised. In March 2020 it abandoned that pattern entirely. On March 3 it cut the federal funds rate by half a percentage point to a range of 1 to 1.25 percent, the first emergency cut since 2008. Twelve days later, on Sunday March 15, it cut again, this time to a range of zero to 0.25 percent, and announced 700 billion dollars of asset purchases.

Two emergency cuts inside two weeks, the second on a weekend, is not a normal policy sequence. It is an institution deciding that the cost of looking panicked is lower than the cost of waiting.

What the Federal Funds Rate Actually Does

The federal funds rate is the interest rate banks charge each other for overnight loans of reserves. The Fed does not set the rates you pay directly. It sets this one rate and lets it propagate outward, into what banks charge each other, then into short term business credit, credit cards, and eventually the broader cost of money.

Cutting to zero is the conventional tool run to its limit. Once the policy rate is at zero, the Fed cannot cut meaningfully further without going negative, which the United States has never done. Everything after that point is unconventional, which is why the asset purchases mattered more than the rate cut.

Cutting rates makes money cheaper. Buying assets makes sure there is a buyer at all. In March 2020 the second problem was the urgent one.

Quantitative Easing, Plainly

Quantitative easing means the central bank creates reserves and uses them to buy securities, mostly Treasuries and mortgage backed securities. Two things happen. The seller ends up holding cash instead of a bond, which pushes money toward other assets. And the price of the purchased bond rises, which pushes its yield down.

The initial 700 billion dollar figure did not hold for long. Within two weeks the Fed removed the cap entirely and committed to buying in whatever amounts were needed to keep markets functioning. That shift, from a number to an open commitment, is the part professional investors reacted to most, because a stated limit invites the market to test it.

Why the Treasury Market Was the Real Emergency

The trigger was not the stock market. It was that the Treasury market, the deepest and most liquid market on earth, had started to malfunction. Investors who needed cash were selling the assets that were easiest to sell, which meant Treasuries. Dealers who normally absorb that flow had limited balance sheet capacity and stepped back.

The result was that Treasury yields rose during a panic, the opposite of normal behavior, and bid ask spreads widened sharply. If the reference asset for the entire financial system cannot be priced reliably, nothing built on top of it can be priced either. That is a plumbing failure, and plumbing failures are precisely what a central bank exists to fix.

The Cost Side of the Ledger

None of this was free. The balance sheet expansion that began in March 2020 took the Fed's holdings from roughly 4 trillion dollars to nearly 9 trillion over the following two years. Rates stayed near zero into 2022. The debate over how much that contributed to the inflation that followed is still live, and any honest account has to hold both facts at once: the intervention stopped a genuine financial seizure, and the exit from it proved far harder than the entry.

The Bottom Line

The Sunday night cut is remembered as the dramatic moment, but the durable lesson is the sequence. Rate cuts addressed the price of money. The asset purchases addressed whether markets worked at all, and that was the actual emergency.

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